Commentary by ‘Ala Pomelile
In a recent parliamentary debate on immigration, Immigration Minister Erica Stanford raised serious concerns about New Zealand’s declining birth rate—a challenge that will shape the nation’s future. Yet instead of thoughtful engagement, her warning was met with jokes aimed at National MP Simeon Brown and Finance Minister Nicola Willis, both parents of four.
It may have sounded like routine political theatre. But it exposes a deeper problem: a growing cultural dismissal of the importance of family life and parenthood. What gets laughed at in Parliament rarely stays there. It reveals what our culture truly values and what it increasingly rejects.
New Zealand’s fertility rate has fallen to around 1.56 births per woman, well below the 2.1 needed to sustain a population without relying on immigration. At the same time, women are having children later than ever before, with the median age now 31.5 years. Fewer children. Later in life. And increasingly, not at all.
This is how population decline begins—not abruptly, but quietly.
What is perhaps most concerning is not just the decline itself, but the response to it. Instead of asking how we might better support families, strengthen relationships, or make parenthood more achievable, the issue is often dismissed or trivialised. Large families are increasingly portrayed as unusual or impractical, rather than something to value or support.
This shift matters.
Across developed countries, fertility has already fallen sharply from more than three children per woman in the 1960s to around 1.5 today, raising concerns about ageing populations, economic strain, and generational imbalance. When a culture no longer values traditional marriage, family life and children, the consequences are not immediate but inevitable.
The quiet erosion of marriage
At the same time, New Zealand is experiencing a steady decline in marriage rates.
In 2025, there were 17,481 marriages and civil unions, a decline from 18,033 the previous year. Divorce rates increased to 7,887. The overall trend is evident: fewer individuals are forming long-term, stable relationships, and many that do are not enduring. This issue extends beyond personal choices, indicating a decline in one of society’s foundational institutions. Marriage between one man and one woman has historically provided one of the most stable and consistent environments for raising children. When it weakens, family formation declines.
Whilst the culture continues to devalue marriage and parenthood, the data tells a more nuanced story. Research from the Institute of Family Studies shows that marriage and parenthood are strongly linked to well-being. Around 40% of married mothers report being “very happy,” compared with just 22% of unmarried, childless women. In other words, married mothers are nearly twice as likely to report high levels of happiness.
The same research found that men and women with both a spouse and children are the most likely to report strong life satisfaction. Despite the challenges, family life continues to offer meaning, connection, and a sense of purpose that is difficult to replicate elsewhere.
This isn’t to deny the pressures involved in starting families. Factors like housing costs, financial instability, and competing priorities are influential. However, broader cultural messaging has taken hold among many. One that promotes placing other pursuits above marriage and family, often overlooking the sacrifices this entails.
The future we are shaping
Declining birth rates are often framed as a matter of personal choice, except that the consequences are collective. Fewer children today means fewer workers tomorrow, greater pressure on social support systems, and a rapidly ageing population with fewer people to sustain it. More fundamentally, it reshapes the fabric of society—fewer siblings, fewer extended families, and fewer connections between generations.
The deeper issue is not disagreement. It is indifference.
We are no longer seriously asking how to make it easier for families to form, how to support lasting relationships, or how to build a culture that values parenthood. Too often, the response is to shrug or, as seen in Parliament, to laugh.
But decline rarely announces itself loudly. It unfolds gradually, through small shifts in priorities and attitudes, until the consequences become impossible to ignore. The future of New Zealand will not be determined by economic policy alone. It is built in marriages, in homes, in communities that value marriages and family life, and in the decision to bring the next generation into the world.
That is why the tone of our national conversation matters.
Because if we continue to treat family life as optional and burdensome, we should not be surprised when fewer people choose it. If we fail to value marriage and family, we should not be surprised when fewer families are formed and when the future we depend on begins to slip quietly out of reach.
A declining birth rate is not just a statistic. It is a signal.
And if the tone set in Parliament reflects the tone of our society, then it matters whether we laugh it off or take it seriously, because the future being debated there is the one we will all have to live in.
Supporting families, upholding traditional marriage, and making parenthood and family life more attainable are not nostalgic ideas – they are essential ones. The real question is whether our leaders (and our nation) are willing to treat them as priorities or continue sidelining them until the consequences can no longer be ignored.
